Is the stock market about to crash or correct?
Of course.
But that doesn't mean anything.
- How much of a crash. 100 points? 500 points? 10,000 points?
- When exactly is it going to crash? 2 days? 2 months? 2 years? 2 decades?
The metals market does not match the stock index
You don't need all that deep of analysis to see markets are manipulated and things are pretty bad.
Look at GDP.
What's the formula?
Consumption + Investment + Government spending + (exports - imports).
Record taxes, record government spending, record debt, QE, bailouts, continuously low GDP.
The "government spending" portion of GDP is at record highs...yet GDP doesn't break 3%?
Inject trillions a year? Double the national debt in less than 10 years? And GDP stays around 2% or lower?
Is it an election year manipulation of the markets that will bring a correction?
Raising rates and decreasing the money supply will.
When money is flooding through the market, when wealth is based on velocity, dollars chasing dollars in the market, shutting the tap is going to cause problems.
But a lot is based on psychology rather than tangible things like value added. So it will depend on the narrative supported by the media too.
When you read headlines that a company is breaking income records, then read the earnings or annual report and see it's mostly accounting gimmicks and layoffs that saved money rather than normal business operations, yet everyone is trading the headlines, the party is going to last as long as headlines hold sway and tax loopholes can be utilized.