Perhaps you are right but over the Last 20 years Manufacturers have been adding an Removing chemicals to Plastic of consumer Products, Since then bags plastic jugs n bottles will denigrate if left in the weather in as Little as 3 months most will disappear in 1 years time Even when buried under ground.
just a little known modern fact.

We need only to look at the U.S. Census over the LASTS 50 years or so.
And Look at the U.S. Census Predictions for the Next 50 Years to get an educated picture of what the future holds for some of us and our children's children I'm going to deal in numbers an one can see the foggy future. or ONE of them lol The #'s are FACT the next 50 years are my Conjecture Enjoy.

in 1965 the white population was 90% in America Immigration laws changed to let ALL Countries into the U.S. Also many Social laws changed
In 2010 white Pop. was 67% Social issues an Political issue are one in the same . the rise of TECH n the internet give 24 hr. news cycles. Many want GOV. to fix personal problems that 50 years ago we did our selves.

U.S. Census Predicts that in the year 2044 the white Pop. will be 47% a Minority Now. this means the DEMS drive to Socialism will be Stronger Republican party will weaken do to un ending social programs an Handouts to buy votes. Racial an Gender Tensions will double compared to 2018. guilty till proven incent will be the norm in politics n will bleed threw to the public

In 2065 Census Predicts white pop. will be at 38% .The US will have NO Clear Majority race. The Republican Party is Finished What's Left is a Powerful one party system that starts Controlling everything, Tensions in society turn to Frequent Violence n Mayhem in all major cities, Democrat institute MARSHAL LAW to Confiscate all Private GUNS as Hitler did in 1930's as this goes on Other country's who control Immigration like RUSSIA n CHINA even MEXICO Plan to Invade America after the GUN Control CIVIL WAR is OVER an the public is DISARMED n Weakened

This is ONE Possible Future that ends the republic.
How's That??LOL
replies?

Hello rtHane,
I trust this thread will not turn to political projections but since the race divide has been surfaced I have a Darwinian question.



By the above trending, in 2085 white pop will be 28%. The question is: Isn't the projected decline in white pop due to transformation / rise in mixed population; rather than immigration?

If so, by 2085; US Census may measure in several new denominations: white, black, colored, chromatic and others. Under this revised set of denominations people like Steve Jobs (Syrian Dad) in future may likely be considered as chromatic (an opinion).

The significant question is, given the same quality of life as present, would children from this mix have a biological advantage over children from rest of world?

Being over 50 years old myself there are things I have witnessed first hand and deduced with memory recall that gives a good indication of the trends that actually happen in 50 years.

Many of the predictions of the next 50 years, 50 years ago, were not even close to being accurate. This is because trends and memes don't follow predictions.

When I was a kid, we all "Knew" there would be a global thermo-nuclear war before we turned 30. We all "Knew" there would be food riots, super soldiers and flying cars. The reality turned out differently, sometimes because the predictions were inaccurate and sometimes because smart people put safeguards in place to prevent the bad stuff.

The thing about statistical predictions is that they only work as long as the statistical details stay the same. Problem is, reality changes those statistical details on a constant basis.

Accurate predictions seem to be the predictions based on memes and trends not statistics. There is a problem even with trending predictions when time is applied.
As time progresses, the trends and memes change. A trending prediction has near validity for short duration time spans. The further into the future, the less accurate.

We live in a dynamic society. As time passes, the average intelligence increases. As intelligence increases, trends shift their predicted paths. The average person has a greater awareness of global conditions now than 50 years ago. As communication and transportation technology advances, that global presence is likely to increase instead of decrease. Geographical isolation is already diminishing. Societal isolation is already diminishing.
Right now, we are aware of global trends, 50 years ago, people didn't think globally.

As global awareness becomes more and more commonplace, trending will change to encompass a global presence. Human beings will begin initiating changes that affect the global conditions. Its already starting to happen.

As the societal isolation diminishes, people will inter-mix globally.
This will affect cultural and racial bigotry. We are already seeing trends that indicate a greater degree of acceptance globally.
In 50 years, we might no longer track percentage of whites or any other bigoted statistic because the entire world might be inter-mixed.

Sure, there may be "pocket societies" where global trending is rejected but over-all, as people unite globally, predictions based on statistical isolation and bigotry will not come true.

Looking back at the List in the second last post
it becomes obvious that apart from population there are 2 other elephants in the room, Food & Energy

Assuming vertical farms and other food related alternatives / inventions
It's the 'fuel elephant' that's biggest and won't budge.

As per BP,at 80 Million Barrels per Day, oil will run out in 50 years
So if there's to be a major tech change - it will be here.
And solar - appears as the only un- diminishing resource.

Good point but lets look at the status of oil dependency and the alternative sources that are currently being explored.

I believe that mankind will not completely deplete the Earth's oil reserves before alternative sources are implemented.

There have been many recent advances in battery storage, solar conversion and motor efficiency.
The automotive industry relies heavily on internal combustion engines to create propulsion. Compared to electrical, internal combustion is not efficient anymore. That internal combustion engine that causes your car to move is based on an explosion of air, fuel and compression to transmit that explosive force down a rod to the crankshaft which rotates thru the physics of journal angles.

I think we will still drive cars and trucks in 50 years and they might have internal combustion engines but those engines will be for electrical generation not propulsion (thus, they will become smaller and smaller over time). Which means, when charging the batteries idle will be the only time the engine will be needed.

While driving, generators at the wheels might maintain the batteries which will be the source of power for the highly efficient motors (possibly on each wheel).
Right now, with a properly operating alternator, a running engine does not need a battery to stay running. Its only when you load the system with an electrical load greater that the output of the alternator that you need a battery.
You still need a battery to start the engine but driving down the road, the battery can be disconnected if the alternator is good.

Many of the circuits in a car are low voltage. Its one of the benefits of electronics. In 50 years, that 'load' on the system might be so low, cars may not even be 12V DC systems anymore.

That technology might transfer to the electrical appliances on the grid as well. We can already buy many low voltage items. As time progresses, the higher voltage 'dinosaur' appliances will phase out in favor of lower and lower voltage requirements. We have already seen it in light bulbs.

With significantly lower voltage requirements, we will need less power generation over-all. As solar power generation continues to advance and become cheaper, we will see more homes powered by solar panels and batteries than now.
Imagine highways lined with solar panels, miles upon miles of solar panels.
Then think about the generation.

Most power stations are based on electromagnetic induction from a rotating field. Not all power is created by rotating (solar). As technology advances, there will be breakthroughs in how we create our power.
There have been studies exploring piezoelectric generation. Imagine power being added to the grid from specially made sidewalks in cities.
Clothing that can charge a cell phone with normal movement.
We will master the ability to generate power by any movement. Anything that moves is a potential power source.

Not in 50 years (I don't think) we might eventually figure out how to tap the atomic electromagnetic forces in the atoms that make up the device. I think that might be mankind's ultimate power generation goal.
No more wires, no more generators, just the atoms that make up the device. Maybe in 200 or 400 years.

I read a lot of science papers and websites and it seems like nearly every week there is something announcing a new way to store power or require less power.

Fossil fuels are not efficient. Industry will drive their use to a minimum because it will save people money and that is nearly always popular. Our technology has caused fossil fuels to be obsolete. We still use them because right now, its easier. Pretty soon, it will no longer be easier or cost effective.

All i see in 50 years is the US becoming a socialist state, in addition to many other failed countries around the world. And a little more communism. I am usually optimistic about how to figure out my own problems, but when you get millions of people who don't know what they are doing, i don't feel optimistic anymore.

NASA's plan to return to the moon may have something to do with solar (panel) farm in near future. (Speculation)

a Japanese layout of the farm:

There have been many advances in solar power efficiency since I was a kid.
The Moon, is merely a small, very small source for solar power.
With our advancements in efficiency, we won't NEED to tap the Moon's reflective energy but we will certainly be able to.

See the thing is, as we advance in one area other related areas also advance. So, we will get better at tapping power sources but we will also get better at using that power.
We don't need a surplus of power because we won't require so much of it in the first place.
Right now, we are shackled to fossil fuels because to maintain our standards we need surplus fossil fuels to assure our power in the future.
But, if we have real-time energy available at all times then we don't need to stockpile resources to maintain our ability to power our world.
The Sun will burn for another 4.5 - 6 Billion years. That is a 'Renewable Resource in every sense of the concept.

If yer really smart, you can calculate how much output the Earth gets from the Sun in a given time. You can figure how much of that we can capture and convert and then how much we need to run our stuff.
The source is far greater than the load and as we advance with energy efficiency, the load diminishes over time. Plus, the source is not subject to depletion from usage.

In the past, we NEEDED fossil fuels because our technology was not advanced enough to use solar energy but that is no longer the case, is it?

The ONLY reason we are still using fossil fuels is because the rich want to stay rich as long as they can. People are too stoooooooopid to say enough is enough.
BUT, that all hinges on the concept of diminishing returns and sooner or later the people are going to say that's enough. Within 50 years, yep. Within 20 years, perhaps.

Tom, I believe the label “Lunar Solar Cells” on the picture is the reason for the above comment. The fact is the picture shows JAXA's plan for solar panels installed across the equator of the moon. (No, not moonshine)




Agreed. Larger countries (say Australia, Canada..) may have the reserves to wait. Smaller countries (say Japan) are already at risk. The fact that US is already tapping into Alaska (in our lifetimes) says a lot about where we already are. (In Texas it is fracking and ...






Nothing wrong about being optimistic about fuel efficiencies and technology advancement but it appears that we may be diminishing the stockpile which was Plan B (at a fast clip).

Gasoline prices have increased 1.5 times in 20 years in US; 2 times in India. May increase by 2 times in next 20 years.

So no doubt on energy shortage being the driver that changes how we live.

Space Missions Most effected because fossil fuel won't go away for launches. At 100 tons of fuel per launch (say around 1000 barrels of crude) plus the space journey: moon and back; add 20 tons by thumb rule (200 barrels). So we have 1000,000 gallons (a nice million) for one ride of 500,000 miles to moon and back.

So if the solar program doesn't kick in within two decades it's likely to be a Catch 22 situation for a few over populous countries. (opinion)

Another pic on Layout of Solar Plant on moon by JAXA





Panels have to cover entire equator for day & night supply. May take 50 years. Meantime JAXA has a pilot plant for space.

Likelihood that mankind will get back to the Moon in 50 years pretty good.
Likelihood that mankind will have the ability to construct a permanent facility on the Moon in 50 years pretty slim.

RP-1 (highly refined kerosene) is used in combination with liquid oxygen as the oxidizer.
In most rocket engines fueled by liquid hydrogen, it first cools the nozzle and other parts before being mixed with the oxidizer — usually liquid oxygen (LOX) — and burned to produce water with traces of ozone and hydrogen peroxide. ...
Liquid hydrogen can be used as the fuel for an internal combustion engine or fuel cell.
Ammonium perchlorate, the salt of perchloric acid and ammonia, is a powerful oxidizer (read: majorly explosive). In the boosters, the aluminum powder and ammonium perchlorate are held together by a binder, polybutadiene acrylonitrile, or PBAN.
What this tells me is RP-1 may not be used at all in the near future.

In 50 years even less likely. So fossil fuels will not be powering our space rockets. It will be something else. Probably different combinations of liquid and solid materials according to the application.

Before any construction project can be done on the Moon or Mars we will need to launch many materials and supply missions so the stuff we will need will be there when we get there. Right now, there are no missions of this type on any of the schedules. Right now, we are still restricted to low-orbit resupply mission with no staging missions at all. This tells me solar panels on the Moon will not be very far completed in 50 years.
It would make more sense to set solar arrays in high-orbit. With what we have already learned about orbital mechanics, in 50 years those arrays will be in very stable orbits. Plus, in 50 years, we will have better space survival skills so maintaining those arrays would be cheaper and easier than building an array on the Moon.

Yes, I know what "fracking" is.

Right now we are fossil fuels addicted.
As more and more countries find and use alternative fuel sources, the technology will get cheaper and cheaper switch. Its a trend that is already starting to happen.
The new mega-shopping center in Slidell, LA has electric car parking stations with rechargers. As new infrastructure is built, we will see more charging stations popping up.
Eventually, recharging stations will outnumber gas stations.

The technology of highway construction has changed a lot in the last 50 years. We embed lots of things into our highways for a multitude of reasons.
Someday in the future (maybe not 50 years) we may have highway propulsion that pushes the car to maintain speed.
Think magnetic-repulsion.
The car uses fossil fuels to start it moving by charging the batteries and electric till it hits the highways where the highway itself takes over.
With an electric car, there is no need for internal combustion to propel a driving force to the wheels. All it needs internal combustion for is to run a high output generator.

With wheel-end electric motor/generators, the car moving charges the batteries so no need to constantly run an internal combustion engine.

Even the suspension could house piezoelectric generators.



Just hitting bumps could produce electricity to help keep the batteries charged.

There could even be wind generators in the front of the car contributing to battery charging (just driving down the road).

I've seen prototype vehicles that have a chassis composed of batteries.



VW is thinking of building a chassis like this and allowing you to interchange different body styles on it.



Right now the vehicle construction industry is maintaining our dependence on fossil fuels but it is under a change away from internal combustion.
The fuel supply industry is currently huge but they know the end is coming. They are desperately trying to hang on to the market.
They fight the phase out.

Chances are, people will be forced away from fossil fuel use like we were forced to buy new TVs. Within 50 years, you may be hard pressed to find a car that uses fossil fuels in a showroom.
What's worse will be the slow decrease in gas stations that sell fossil fuels and many older cars will hit the junk yards or, like old TVs converted to digital antennas, will be converted to operate by another energy source.

In 50 years, we will still have oil companies and fossil fuel stockpiles but they will be more like the steel industry as less and less demand takes hold.

You are a good teacher Tom.
very convincing.

Chinese Cotton sprouting on the moon.





The plant's may not interest us as much as the cradle in which the seeds sprouted.

For a bit more on the cradle:

http://www.spacetechasia.com/chinas-seeds-have-sprouted-on-the-moon/

The Chinese have always maintained that they have a 100 Year Plan; and they probably rework it every 10 years. Probably more interesting farm experiments in future?

I read the article.
The seeds didn't sprout from the Moon.
They were in sealed containers and could be grown anywhere.
They didn't even use Moon soil.


China's first plant on the moon withers and dies soon after sprouting ...
https://globalnews.ca/news/4857967/china-dark-side-moon-plant-dies/

While China's feat is impressive it didn't address the issue of soil and nutrients.
Had they actually used Moon soil, that would be really significant.
As it sets, they developed a portable greenhouse but it requires Earth Dirt.

Any settlement or station would need to transport Earth Dirt to use the greenhouse.

The fact that it withered and died indicates that something (gravity? Cosmic radiation?) interferes with plant growth.

If they could grow a plant that lives long enough to germinate, the second generation or the 50th generation might be able to withstand what killed this first plant.
But, it didn't germinate. It died too fast.

I consider it a 'failed' experiment. Significant only because it was done on the far side of the Moon.

They need to retrieve the sample and study it to figure out why it died.
They need to gather and retrieve Moon Dirt for the next experiment.

Mark Watney from The Martian (2015) used Mars Dirt to grow potatoes.
This is significant because space missions can't carry signifcant amounts of Earth Dirt to the Moon or Mars.

Something that the regular person doesn't understand is that the Moon is beyond the protective sheath of the Earth. The ISS is partially proteted frpm lethal cosmic radiation but if you travel beyond the protect, it gets lethal without proper shielding and nobody has invented a shielding that works that is light enough to use in construction.


Perhaps sprouting plants are even more sensitive to that radiation?

So what do you think it will be like on 50 years cause that's pretty much today lol prisons are full over in the UK there is like 90k people inside that's over double what it wa in the early 90s with less staff to deal with them and in half the amount of prisons with a justice system that is on its arse.

In 50 years there will be a lot shorter life expectancy cause of the super bugs and new things cause when you look at bacteria we know very little about it all we know a few % or what is out there what it does and what the potential is of it so I can see that being a big problem later when all the tablets stop working.

I read or saw somewhere drive to break new ground to expand our habitat hold a hazard of digging up (unEarthing) a long dormant pathogen which we have no natural defense against because it has been buried for so long.

Humans are constantly digging places where digging hasn't taken place.
We churn up the biosphere, both land based and submerged.
Its reasonable to imagine we might dig up a pathogen, virus or bacterium that we have never seen.
Its like playing Russian Roulette.

Gotta remember, 50 years is not really that far from now.
Could there be a catastrophic change for the worst, certainly.
Is it likely, eventually but I don't believe within 50 years.

One thing most people don't consider is the fact that as time progress our species gets smarter at beating natural barriers.
Our species is smart, people are dumb but our species finds a way to continue.

One threat people seem to have a problem acknowledging is over-population.
I see a few recent movies that address it but mainstream thinking is not focused on and in 50 years, we might have 15 billion people instead of 7.7 billion right now.

Our near future will be dictated by our population growth.
We will see worse and worse effects from it as time trucks along.
I foresee the next 20 years to be a focus on the over-population problem.
Focus but not a solution.
Perhaps in 50 years, with the right measures, we might be starting to get a handle on it but nobody alive right now would embrace the solution.
Its not in yer face enough.
In 20 years, its probably gunna be in everyone's faces.

More people are being born than dying.
More people are living longer.
Its already past the point of safe fix.
The longer we wait to do anything about it the more extreme the solution needed.

As crazy as this sounds I don't think over population will be a problem in 50 years cause of the amount of things that give off radiation to make people infertile, also with all this crazy weather and that I can see a lot being wiped off the face of the earth and you need to look at boxing day 04 we are due things like that again cause it all goes in cycles we will have the stock market going down in the next 50 and will be a lot topping them self's.