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Topic: Closer ties with Russia
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jaish's photo

jaish

Thu 05/16/19 12:12 PM


It is expected that Trumps & Putin will be meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Japan next month. This was confirmed during Pompeo's visit to Russia where he discussed Syria, Afghanistan and Venezuela with his counterpart but significantly left out Russian annexation of Crimea - the main sore point of Europe.

In a subsequent meeting, Putin made it clear that the sanctions must go.
--xx--

With the dice loaded against any such meeting due to:
a) Communism an ever present threat and so
b) the needs to maintain the military-industry complex and
c) the politics of oil (Russian reserve is as large as Saudi Arabia's)

what can we expect from the Trump and Putin meeting?

Somethings that promptly come to mind apart from a more enduring world peace, are:
a) Oil prices stable for next two decades giving the much needed time to develop the technology for alternate energy.
b) Joint ventures in Space

Any other compelling reasons that may roll the dice favorably?
jaish's photo

jaish

Fri 05/17/19 06:07 AM


So how do presidents of two powerful nations negotiate?

First we have to understand the 'Nothing Fights'.
Biologists observed this in Ant Societies. Here is the scenario.


Honeypot ants feast on foraging termites. Should two colonies come across the same cluster of these plump prey, the ants gather at a tournament site where the workers from each colony circle each other while s tanding high on their legs.

Generally, larger workers come from larger nests, and the size difference is an indicator of which team would win if the colonies fought each other. Once one group appears to be outsized, its workers retreat, and fast: The standoff only turns lethal if the big ants are able to track the small ones home.


Replace 'foraging termites' with oil and 'larger ant workers' with nuclear missiles that no one can use and it explains the standoffs.



Biologists explain the Economics:
One likely reason for the possibility of warfare in large societies, among both ants and humans, is simple economics. Big communities are more productive per capita: fewer resources are required to feed and house each individual. The outcome is a reserve labor force that can be quickly deployed as needed —in ants, typically as soldiers.



The excerpts are by Mark W. Moffett who shares a story that didn’t make it into his latest book “The Human Swarm: How Our Societies Arise, Thrive, and Fall,”

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/when-it-comes-waging-war-ants-humans-have-lot-common-180972169/

--xx--

Moffett concludes that with ants its 'all out war', 'nothing fights'. 'raids' or 'break camps'; there are no negotiations.

but if ants could and were to negotiate how would their leaders do it? It would be in a private conversation, on these lines.

Ant Leader 1: I want you to back off from Venezuela.

AL2: Why should I?

AL1: I'm the only friend you got in the USA.

AL2: Okay, you got it. What else?

AL1: I want the Iranian reserves.

AL2: How possible after stopping sales from my reserve?

AL1: Alright, I will allow the pipeline to Europe.

AL2: Okay, what else?

AL1: Tell the Iranians to 'behave' till 2020

AL2: That I can, but how will you turn 'hostile' Iran to 'friend'

AL1: Tariff, 'for' Iranian Oil. Details later.

AL2: Okay, all the best.

IgorFrankensteen's photo

IgorFrankensteen

Fri 05/17/19 01:29 PM



It is expected that Trumps & Putin will be meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Japan next month. This was confirmed during Pompeo's visit to Russia where he discussed Syria, Afghanistan and Venezuela with his counterpart but significantly left out Russian annexation of Crimea - the main sore point of Europe.

In a subsequent meeting, Putin made it clear that the sanctions must go.
--xx--

With the dice loaded against any such meeting due to:
a) Communism an ever present threat and so
b) the needs to maintain the military-industry complex and
c) the politics of oil (Russian reserve is as large as Saudi Arabia's)

what can we expect from the Trump and Putin meeting?

Somethings that promptly come to mind apart from a more enduring world peace, are:
a) Oil prices stable for next two decades giving the much needed time to develop the technology for alternate energy.
b) Joint ventures in Space

Any other compelling reasons that may roll the dice favorably?


Since Trump and the Republicans are both strongly OPPOSED to alternative energy development, and only support ONE "solution" to oil prices (increasing domestic production), the "compelling reasons" you like wouldn't be on their agenda.

jaish's photo

jaish

Sun 05/19/19 10:40 AM



Since Trump and the Republicans are both strongly OPPOSED to alternative energy development, and only support ONE "solution" to oil prices (increasing domestic production), the "compelling reasons" you like wouldn't be on their agenda.


appears that 'one solution' has two parts: (Leaving aside Russian ties for the moment)

Part 1 - Alternate Energy (High Tech)
From a thread in the Science Forum: JV on space with Japan where: 'solar energy converted to microwave and beamed by solar stations / or moon; to earth'.



Image is from the thread '50 years from now'

The space tech & infra are comparable to start up costs for (possibly) a few 100 MW nuclear power plants.

Requiring, development of extraordinarily technology, investments and time.

A joint venture in space with Russians mean that not all tech needs to be from US. Time saver.
--xx--

Part - II "Increase Domestic Production"

There's some good news from Forbes, Dec 2018


America's Oil And Gas Reserves Double With Massive New Permian Discovery

Location: Part of the prolific Permian oil and gas basin that straddles Western Texas and Southeastern New Mexico.

Estimates: The USGS estimates that over 46 billion barrels of oil, 280 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 20 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are trapped in these low-permeability shale formations.


Oil reserves have doubled, seems transport / pipelines is the problem on hand.

Note: Author of article is himself surprised why main stream media has not reported on this, thus far.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/12/21/americas-oil-and-gas-reserves-double-with-massive-new-permian-discovery/#407e03972c91

--xx--

Igor, allow me; since coming from a non-English culture, my write may sound a bit pompous (even to myself). Most of the time, it's unintentional.

Conclusion
The general impression has been that as any businessman, Trump is focused on short term cash flows, Alaskan oil; pipelines and so on. Somehow it's got into public's mind that this conflicts with long term, high risk investments on the future.

It's like somebody said, 'build the Wall before trying to remove failing dictators in South America'. While some of us see the conflict, others an alignment.