Status:
The World has completely stopped on Iranian Oil (80% of Iran’s exports).

Additional sanctions are now applied; on Metals.

Further, the USS Abraham Lincoln is now in the Gulf seas

W/o taking sides with Trump or Rouhani can we tell how this will unravel in next few months ?

--xx--

Just so that we are all on the same page:

From Recent History: No doubt that as the civil war in Syria 2011-12 turned in favor of the majority of the citizens and Assad was looking for a dignified exit, Russia propped him up and then ISIS trooped in. ISIS manpower was from Iraq and ideology of an Islamic Caliphate, from Iran.

From Ancient History: Back in the 80s, USA supported the Shah of Iran; (equivalent to supporting Assad of Syria). When the Shah was deposed by the Ayatollah Revolution, USA was caught off guard. Naturally, the Iranians viewed USA as part of the oppressor’s regime.





The Great Game is on.

The situation is far too complex to deal with in short posts. The game has been "on" for a long time. Another chapter opens...

understand the complexities of the past and political stakes; needless to re-raise them here.

To look onto the future we need to think of it as a game. It then seems we don't see a happy ending. Like N. Korea. NK had big brother China standing by.

Iran's response has been to ask EU to intervene. Given 60 days, till July 2nd.


EU's response (a day ago)



In other words Iran will have to 'be more patient'

It's treated like a game by some, for sure. And it's bigger than many realize. I remember a particular simple minded American leader who scoffed and said "Iran is a threat? Iran is a tiny country!" Thankfully no one that naive is dealing with them now.

It was us the British who put Saddam in power I think.
We were happy to turn a blind eye, as he apparently kept other forces at bay
And I suppose there were various backhanders on oil deals
But then he got too big for his boots, pushed his luck too far, and bit the hand that fed him, so bye bye Saddam
I suspect a similar thing here, sort of, only Trump ain't getting the deal he wants, I suppose
And these things will simply continue in these mineral and oil rich countries
We'll allow somebody to get away with loads of stuff, all the while pretending we don't. Then point our finger and say how terrible they are
This will probably happen as long as we use fossil fuels that we don't need.
As for the Russia / China / Isis elements to this equation. I really don't know. I just know that it makes me sad, and that I don't like politics.
And that it's all a sort of Dr Strange Love scenario
Where the doomsaday device that can destroy us all, is there to keep us safe
Even if you don't go to that extreme, it's who's got the biggest guns, whose got the most guns, who's got the most soldiers
All of this to keep us safe
From them
The bogeyman
Not us, we're the good guys
Like I say, my knowledge isn't great, but I just don't buy into it

On first point, let me ask for how many generations are the Brits going to remain encumbered in the past?

On second point, yes. It is not clear what Trump is demanding from the existing nuclear deal further, his twitter message to Rouhan; is strange. Sounds like a demand for unconditional surrender.

Your final point - yes, it is naked display of power
(this is Trump's way; whether people like it or not).
--xx--

Moving forward, the Question is what are the options Iran has, and US reactions to them.

Because, as of now, it is between US and Iran:

Europe is not allied with US on this.

China wants to leverage on this renegotiate the tariffs.

India has no say.

And Iran is not a Country that will bend on her knees.

-Stalemate!!

I call it "The bully mentality".

Fear me. Oooh and Ahh me because I'm smarter/stronger than you. Aren't you impressed with me?

Oh come now, get real. Wanna impress me? Make your citizens happy. Make their standard of living good. Instill pride in their country. Let them live without fear, or oppression. Make them WANT to stay in their country. How hard is that?

Plenty hard, from what we've seen. Quite a few aren't happy unless they see others struggle to live. It really doesn't say much for you, if everyone hates your guts, and want to leave.

I'm not fond of bullies. Give me a chance, I'll lower one. Don't tell me what to do, I won't do it to you. You live, I live.


Just for a minute, lets say Iran drops its nuclear program. What would happen? Plenty. Money would rolling into their country, to buy their oil. They would get swamped in trading partners wanting to sell them goods. They'd need lots of workers to help them get their oil out. The workers would have money to spend. Gotta have places to spend their money. Well, shoot, no buildings to do it in. Build them. More workers to do the work. More folks with money to spend. Prosperity goes crazy. People get happy. Life gets good.

In a short amount of time, Iran becomes a place that people want to be at. Who wouldn't want to live in a prosperous country? Shows just one thing.

Their leaders are idiots.

Last line - hilarious.

But R2D2 is right when he says US support for Shah (ending 1989) is similar to UK's propping up of Saddam.

Question is: Why is it that even today, US continues to support monarchies in Middle Eastern Arab countries?
--xx--

Oil:
Texas has run out of oil; the new guzzle is from fracking .





in 2017 / 18, US tried to push their oil to India after Trump - Modi meet; but was rejected after first few shipments by the refineries here, citing 'low' quality. Texas oil they said is too 'sweet'; requirement was for 'bitter' cause we are much more dependent on rails and trucks; they run on diesel.

The boys want to talk, but don't want to call first.

and so preliminary negotiations are likely to continue over Twitter.

Today's press meet, Trump clarifies that: let Iran call and we will negotiate.
No nuclear weapons & that he wants Iran to be a prosperous country.





Trump was also specific about John Kerry. Says it's Kerry advising the Iranians.

... It's an old line but matter is what exactly is Mr. Kerry advising.

Doesn't make sense if gasoline prices are $3 plus, per gallon unless...

???

Iran, the ball is now in your court.

It began with oil and then metal exports and since yesterday it's the downstream petrochemicals. So if any of us had doubts on how serious Trump is, this finally clears it.

Jan 2018 Back then when oil sanctions were first imposed the response from world community was:



With Brexit peaking, Europe may have even less of an opinion on this round of sanctions and seems Trump is leveraging on this, a hustler's tactics.

13 June 2019: Second mishap in Gulf of Oman

A crude oil tanker owned by Norway-based Frontline
and another carrying naphtha, managed by a Singapore or Japanese company
both ships suffered damage.




This, on day of Shinzo Abe's visit!!

Hello Lung,
nice to see you back.

I think a debate on ISIS, whether 'from Saudi Arabia' or Iran hardly matters anymore with Syria ruined. It now appears that there are much more immigrant Muslims in Syria bolstering Assad's Rule than ever before.

In my non-Islamic view, the difference between Iran and Saudi is that the Saudi's continue to have a King while Iran threw their's out.

anyway, if the Sanctions force Iran to completely give up their foreign policy of encouraging aggression (without a shot being fired) I think it would be a great achievement in our times.

Unfortunately, Trump is looking at costs and his patience is running out.

Latest:

Why didn’t America force Israel to stop killing Palestinians and didn’t force Saudi Arabia to stop war against Yemen's people via Sanctions?!

Elsewhere, U.S. allies met the Trump administration’s insistence on Iranian perfidy with caution and even skepticism. “The video is not enough,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told reporters. “We can understand what is being shown, sure, but to make a final assessment, this is not enough for me.”

Man orders air strikes then cancels them.

June 20th: On the basis of: Iran shooting down an American surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims the aircraft was flying over its territorial waters, while America insists it was above international waters.

Trump had then declared that Iran had made a “big mistake”,



Really Donald?

the World has been watching your boys shooting at tankers (6 so far); what's a small drone relatively?

[An Iranian lady (interviewed on the net over the economic hardship) says it's like two school boys fighting.

I do hope it ends that way. But where the heck is the headmaster?]